FighterForecast

Predict MMA Fight Outcomes with ML

FighterForecast uses Machine Learning to predict the outcomes of fights based on generated ELO metrics and comparing the results to Casino Odds.

Start Predicting

Why Choose FighterForecast?

Betting Advantages

Using the Model's probabilistic measures and Casino Odds from over 20 different Bookmakers, FightForecast gives users the highest return on investment from historically backed data and analysis.

Predictive Accuracy

Using ML and Elo stats the model accurately identifies the winners of 80% of fights from across the over 7000 UFC fights used to build it.

Elo Stats

Elo stats are generated using over 7000 UFC fights since 1999 and advanced functions. The stats give historical contexts to a fighter's ability to perform certain actions and their ability to winf rom those actions.

Latest Card Predictions

Main Fight

Ilia Topuria

Record: 8-0

Avg odds: 1.21

60%

Charles Oliveira

Record: 23-10

Avg odds: 4.46

40%

Ilia Topuria 60% chance : (BetOnline.ag: 1.2, FanDuel: 1.22, DraftKings: 1.22, BetRivers: 1.22, BetMGM: 1.2)

Best EV: Ilia Topuria on FanDuel: 0.73

Charles Oliveira 40% chance : (BetOnline.ag: 4.75, FanDuel: 4.2, DraftKings: 4.5, BetRivers: 4.25, BetMGM: 4.6)

Best EV: Charles Oliveira on BetOnline.ag: 1.91

Show Stat Breakdown
Fighter A Rating
Stat
Fighter B Rating
1618
Raw
1572
67
Height (in)
70
69
Reach (in)
74
1562
Knockout Offense
1551
1500
Knockout Defense
1453
1520
Submission Offense
1610
1500
Submission Defense
1436
1529
Decision Win
1517
1542
Go To Decision
1481
1541
Takedown Offense
1591
1469
Takedown Defense
1390
1564
Head Strikes Offense
1597
1447
Head Strikes Defense
1340
1548
Body Strikes Offense
1599
1418
Body Strikes Defense
1375
1530
Leg Strikes Offense
1615
1376
Leg Strikes Defense
1381
1569
Knockdown Offense
1557
1500
Knockdown Defense
1421
1500
Height Advantage Offense
1547
1581
Height Advantage Defense
1542
1500
Reach Advantage Offense
1599
1500
Reach Advantage Defense
1529

Other Fights

Alexandre Pantoja

Record: 13-3

Avg odds: 1.38

63%

Kai Kara-France

Record: 8-4

Avg odds: 3.11

37%

Alexandre Pantoja 63% : BetOnline.ag: 1.4, FanDuel: 1.38, BetRivers: 1.34, DraftKings: 1.4, BetMGM: 1.36

Best EV: Alexandre Pantoja on BetOnline.ag: 0.88

Kai Kara-France 37% : BetOnline.ag: 3.12, FanDuel: 3, BetRivers: 3.2, DraftKings: 3.05, BetMGM: 3.2

Best EV: Kai Kara-France on BetRivers: 1.19

Show Stat Breakdown
Fighter A Rating
Stat
Fighter B Rating
1596
Raw
1486
65
Height (in)
64
67
Reach (in)
69
1522
Knockout Offense
1529
1500
Knockout Defense
1468
1550
Submission Offense
1500
1500
Submission Defense
1473
1562
Decision Win
1543
1618
Go To Decision
1525
1583
Takedown Offense
1546
1398
Takedown Defense
1426
1536
Head Strikes Offense
1573
1316
Head Strikes Defense
1392
1606
Body Strikes Offense
1570
1430
Body Strikes Defense
1395
1580
Leg Strikes Offense
1593
1401
Leg Strikes Defense
1450
1543
Knockdown Offense
1542
1478
Knockdown Defense
1444
1508
Height Advantage Offense
1500
1518
Height Advantage Defense
1500
1537
Reach Advantage Offense
1503
1505
Reach Advantage Defense
1545

Beneil Dariush

Record: 16-6

Avg odds: 1.99

46%

Renato Moicano

Record: 12-6

Avg odds: 1.82

54%

Beneil Dariush 46% : BetOnline.ag: 2, BetRivers: 1.95, DraftKings: 2.02, FanDuel: 2, BetMGM: 2

Best EV: Beneil Dariush on DraftKings: 0.92

Renato Moicano 54% : BetOnline.ag: 1.83, BetRivers: 1.83, DraftKings: 1.82, FanDuel: 1.78, BetMGM: 1.83

Best EV: Renato Moicano on BetOnline.ag: 0.99

Show Stat Breakdown
Fighter A Rating
Stat
Fighter B Rating
1555
Raw
1559
70
Height (in)
71
72
Reach (in)
72
1542
Knockout Offense
1539
1419
Knockout Defense
1437
1547
Submission Offense
1570
1483
Submission Defense
1481
1562
Decision Win
1529
1576
Go To Decision
1523
1584
Takedown Offense
1593
1440
Takedown Defense
1458
1607
Head Strikes Offense
1610
1397
Head Strikes Defense
1430
1593
Body Strikes Offense
1545
1411
Body Strikes Defense
1337
1610
Leg Strikes Offense
1546
1408
Leg Strikes Defense
1313
1558
Knockdown Offense
1512
1420
Knockdown Defense
1405
1548
Height Advantage Offense
1506
1533
Height Advantage Defense
1521
1614
Reach Advantage Offense
1525
1525
Reach Advantage Defense
1503

What Is Expected Value (EV)?

Expected Value is the average percentage return you’d make per $1 wagered if you placed that same bet many times over. It’s calculated as Probability × Odds, then averaged across all fights and compared to your total staked.

Betting on Predicted Winners

Your net return if you always bet on whichever fighter the model favors (higher win probability).

21.22%

Betting on Best EV Picks

Your net return if you always bet on the fighter–bookmaker pairing with the highest positive EV.

30.6%